What if we’re in an AI bubble?

The “b” word is not one most investors like to discuss, but what began as a whisper has grown louder and more prominent in recent weeks. While stocks are up for the year, the word is starting to inject a note of uncertainty into the markets…and when uncertainty comes, volatility follows.    

Many experts and market commentators have begun talking about the prospect of an “AI bubble” in the media. So, while the markets have performed well — with all three major indices recently setting new record highs¹ — we believe it’s time for us to discuss the question, too. After all, there’s no better time to prepare for storms than when the sun is shining. So, in this message, let’s look at why the markets might be in an AI-driven bubble and what we should do about it.

Now, a quick note before we dive in. A bubble itself is not a problem. It’s whether that bubble will burst that worries investors. We are not predicting this bubble will pop. The thing about bubbles is that it’s difficult, if not impossible, to tell how big they are, or even if they’ll pop. Many a market commentator has predicted that an asset bubble will burst, only to be proven wrong. But where prediction fails, preparation succeeds, so consider everything you’re about to read in that light. We are preparing for a possibility, not predicting an inevitability.

Intro: Definition. First, let’s define the term. A bubble is when the price of something rises unsustainably high above its actual value. A bubble can form within the broader economy, as in the housing bubble of the mid-2000s. It can form in the stock market, as in the dotcom bubble that began in the late 1990s. Even a specific product can prompt a bubble, like the “Beanie Baby craze” of the mid-90s. (Perhaps the most famous example is the “tulip mania” bubble, which occurred in the Netherlands all the way back in the 17^th century.) In each instance, unprecedented levels of hype — for easily-financed houses, internet stocks, or even stuffed toys — drove demand far above supply. This caused prices to skyrocket far above what those things were usually worth.

In each case, investors eventually realized they were not likely to see a return high enough to justify their investment. This prompted them to sell, and quickly. The sudden drop in prices sparked a panic, with nearly everyone trying to sell at the same time, often at bargain-bin prices. The bubble had burst, and people lost money.   

So, why do some experts speculate that we might be in a bubble now? And what does that have to do with AI? It’s a complex question, but we’ll distill it into something simple by the end.

Part 1: Concentration. Let’s rewind to October 14, 2022. The S&P 500 closed at 3,583 that day.² No one knew it, but it was the bottom of a 10-month bear market. Now, fast-forward to October 28 of this year. On that day, the S&P finished at 6,890, a record high.² Between those two autumn days, the S&P rose by over 90%. That’s an impressive bull market by any standard!

But what has driven that bull market? This is where things get interesting.

When we talk about the stock market going up or down, we often envision it as a single entity moving in one direction. But this isn’t really an accurate way to think of stocks. At any given time, some stocks will be moving up, and some will be moving down. If more stocks are moving in one direction than another, then that’s typically what drives the overall direction of the market.

Sometimes, a mere handful of stocks moving in a big way can drag the overall index along with them. That’s been the case with this bull market. For several years, the majority of the market’s growth has been due to a small number of companies: Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta (Facebook), Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. Often referred to as the Magnificent Seven, these companies represent roughly 35% of the S&P 500’s total value.³ If you add the next three largest, Broadcom, Oracle, and Netflix, that figure rises to 40%.³ 

Think about that number for a moment—an index of five-hundred companies, but with only ten making up 40% of its total worth.

On the surface, you might think all these companies are very different from one another. But nearly all of them have one thing in common: They are investing billions of dollars into AI.

Part 2: Valuation. Excitement about AI is the main driver behind the market’s performance. There are other factors, like lower inflation and easing interest rates, but AI reigns supreme. In fact, there are now over 1,300 AI startups with valuations of $100 million or more, with nearly 500 valued at $1 billion or more.⁴ Eight of them — the Mag 7 plus Broadcom — are valued at over $1 trillion.⁵

So many investors want to board the AI train that they are willing to pay a hefty premium to buy tickets. For example, NVIDIA, the largest of the Mag 7, has a share price over 50 times its earnings.⁶ What does that mean in plain English? It means that, for every dollar of NVIDIA’s earnings that investors hope to receive, they are willing to pay fifty times more. In other words, most AI companies are valued at levels far above what they earn in revenue. (More on this in a moment.)

Okay, we have a stock market being driven by only a handful of companies, all focused on one specific type of technology. The question you’re probably thinking is, “So what?” So what if it’s just a few companies versus a few hundred? It may seem odd, but doesn’t it just show how great those companies are? So what if that much money is being invested in one area? Doesn’t that show how important AI is? These are all good questions, which leads us to:

Part 3: Expectation. The reason investors are willing to pay so much to own stock in AI companies is due to the expectation that, at some point, those companies will generate soaring profits. But there’s an elephant in the room: Many AI companies are not profitable. Quite frankly, most of them are not even close.

AI is expensive. It costs billions to build and operate the infrastructure necessary to support it. In fact, the tech industry is investing so much that total AI spending outpaced consumer spending in the first half of the year.⁵

But as any business owner will tell you, costs matter. For example, take OpenAI, maker of ChatGPT. It’s probably the most famous AI company in the world, so you’d expect it to make a lot of money. And it does — but nowhere close to how much it spends. Some analysts project that OpenAI had a net loss of $13 billion in Q3 alone.⁷ The company itself has said it only hopes to become profitable in 2030. Most other AI companies are thought to be operating at a similar loss. They simply aren’t generating enough revenue to do otherwise.

Now, the Mag 7 companies are profitable as they are large and mature, not startups. But even here, there’s a potential red flag. Companies like Microsoft, Amazon, and NVIDIA earn money by supplying data centers, computer chips, and cloud computing power to all those smaller AI companies. Many of the Mag 7 companies have also invested billions into these AI startups. If those startups never turn a profit and go under, it will dry up a lot of the big companies’ revenue and cause them to lose money on their investments.

For AI to become a profitable venture, the technology itself must become indispensable in everyday life. Only then would enough people and businesses pay these companies enough money to cover their costs. (And remember, we’re not just talking about turning a profit. AI companies will eventually need to earn enough to justify their sky-high valuations.) But this is not guaranteed. While AI can be beneficial in certain situations, a report from MIT found that large enterprises have collectively spent $30-40 billion to leverage AI, yet 95% of those organizations “are getting zero return.”⁸ And a recent report from Pew Research found that 50% of Americans say they’re more concerned than excited about the increased use of AI in daily life.⁹ (Only 10% are more excited than concerned.) Now, these numbers can obviously change in the future, but in the present, neither suggests that the premise — AI must become indispensable to be profitable — is on the verge of coming true. Which brings us at last to:

Part 4: Distillation. Hopefully, you’re still with us. If so, let’s take everything we’ve covered and distill it into something simple. Why might we be in an AI bubble? Here’s why:

The market’s growth has largely been driven by a few companies. Those companies’ growth is largely driven by a single technology. The hype around that technology is so great that most companies that supply it have stock prices valued far above what they earn in revenue. Current data suggests it may be difficult for those companies to earn enough revenue to justify their valuations. And when the price of something rises unsustainably above what it’s worth, you have a bubble.

So, that’s why we might be in an AI bubble. The question now is, what do we do about it?

The single worst thing an investor can do is try to “time” when that bubble might burst. There are several reasons for this. First, despite everything we just wrote, we may not actually be in a bubble. It’s perfectly possible that, as AI technology matures and people become both more accustomed to and more adept at using it, significant profits will follow.

Second, even if we are in a bubble, there is simply no way to tell when it will pop. It could be in three months; it could be in three years. While it would certainly be nice if we could stay invested and then get out right before the pop, that’s just not realistic. For that reason, attempting to time the bubble leaves us more vulnerable to simply being wrong. We might be way too early and miss out on further market growth. We might be too late and miss the rebound after the bubble. An investment strategy that requires us to be perfect —while at the same time increasing our likelihood of being wrong — is not a good strategy at all.

Third, it’s possible that AI is more of a balloon than a bubble and deflates rather than bursts. In this scenario, while certain companies may falter and drop out of the race, other, better companies may take their place. Valuations become more reasonable. Stock prices may fall — but not crash — before ultimately stabilizing. AI becomes a driver of growth rather than the driver.    

We don’t know which of these scenarios will unfold, but we do know this: The best way to prepare for all of them is to stay diversified and keep thinking long term. For proof of this, look at what happened after the dotcom bubble. Tech stocks crashed…but many other investment classes did just fine.¹⁰ Furthermore, what the bubble really did was reveal which tech companies were truly good companies, and which were emperors with no clothes on. The latter disappeared; many of the former grew into titans. Some of them, in fact, belong to the “Magnificent 7” today.

By being patient, by thinking long-term, and by staying diversified, we remain prepared for any scenario…and position ourselves to take advantage of each. It’s not always easy. But in an industry where bubbles, fads, and trends come and go, it’s this strategy that has stood the test of time.

We hope you found this information — written without AI, by the way! — to be useful, especially when you hear the term “AI bubble” in the media. As always, if you have any questions or concerns, please let us know. Whatever the future holds, our team will always be here to help. In the meantime, have a great holiday season!

¹ “All four U.S. stock market indexes just closed at record highs,” Morningstar, https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025102832/all-four-us-stock-market-indexes-just-closed-at-record-highs-heres-what-history-says-happens-next
² “S&P 500 Historical Data,” Investing.com, https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-historical-data
³ “With the Magnificent Seven at 35% of the S&P 500 and the Ten Titans at 40%, are AI Growth Stocks Poised for a Sell-Off or Is There Still Room to Grow?” Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/magnificent-seven-35-p-500-114500263.html
⁴ “Are we in an AI bubble?” CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/21/are-we-in-an-ai-bubble.html
⁵ “AI spending is boosting the economy, but many businesses are in survival mode,” CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/21/are-we-in-an-ai-bubble.html
⁶ “NVIDIA P/E Ratio,” Public.com, https://public.com/stocks/nvda/pe-ratio
⁷ “Big Tech’s Soaring Profits Have an Ugly Underside: Open AI’s Losses,” The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/big-techs-soaring-profits-have-an-ugly-underside-openais-losses-fe7e3184
⁸ “State of AI in Business 2025,” Massachusetts Institute of Technology, https://mlq.ai/media/quarterly_decks/v0.1_State_of_AI_in_Business_2025_Report.pdf
⁹ “How Americans View AI and Its Impact on People and Society,” Pew Research Center, https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2025/09/17/how-americans-view-ai-and-its-impact-on-people-and-society/
¹⁰ “Winners and Losers from the Dot Com Bubble Rate Hike Cycle,” YCharts, https://get.ycharts.com/resources/blog/winners-amp-losers-from-the-dot-com-bubble-rate-hike-cycle/

Happy December! With the holiday season upon us, we expect most people to be preoccupied with the various holidays and parties. We know we certainly are! But if you find a bit of quiet time amid the rush, we’d encourage you to spend it doing something truly festive: conducting your own personal year-end financial review with just you and your family.

Alright, maybe that’s not exactly festive. But it is important. A financial review is a great way to determine exactly how your year went, so you know what mistakes to avoid next year, and which successes to replicate. It’s a chance to take stock: are your finances in the shape you want them to be? Did you accomplish the things you wanted to this year? Have you moved closer to your goals, or farther away?

Of course, you can do a review like this at any time…but there’s something about the end-of-the-year that really brings clarity. Here’s how we would do it:

1. Write down the following questions on a piece of paper:

• What were the best things that happened to me this year?
• What were the worst things?
• How much did I set aside in savings this year?
• How much did I invest, and how did my investments do?
• Did I take on any new debt this year?
• Did I pay my taxes on time, or did I have to apply for an extension?
• Have there been any changes in my life that could affect my will or insurance needs? (Think new kids/grandkids, illness concerns, new property or other possessions, etc.)
• Do I have a better idea about when and how I can retire, or is the situation foggier than ever? Did I even give it any thought?
• Did I spend the year doing enough of what I wanted to do, or only the things I had to do?

2. Think about these questions for a little bit. Discuss them with your family. Then write down the answers below each.

3. After you have the answers, study them to determine if they indicate the need for any financial changes or decisions for next year. For example:

• Why did the best things happen to you? Were they the result of any financial decision? If so, can you replicate that decision?
• Why did the worst things happen? If you did something different with your money, could one or more of those things have been avoided?
• Did you put more into savings this year, or spend more in debt? If so, can that be reversed next year?
• Do you feel closer to your personal and family goals, or further away? If closer, what activities or habits took you closer that you can replicate? If further away, what’s the single biggest reason?

And so on. You get the idea. After you’ve completed this exercise, you’ll have the beginnings of a plan in place for next year. A plan to make your finances healthier. A plan to make your family more secure. A plan to spend more time doing what you want to do instead of solely what you must do. A plan to make next year the best year ever.

That end-of-year review turned out to be insightful. And worth the few minutes it took to conduct it.

If you have any questions or need help with anything the review uncovered, feel free to let us know. We’d be happy to talk with you and do what we can.

In the meantime, happy December! Happy reviewing!

A lot can happen in 75 minutes.

It’s enough time to settle in with loved ones for a classic like The Nightmare Before Christmas, bake a batch of cookies, or enjoy a peaceful, reflective walk through a snow-dusted park. These moments feel ordinary, comforting, and filled with life.

But 75 minutes can also change the course of history.

On December 7, 1941, in just 75 minutes, the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor claimed the lives of 2,403 service members and civilians and left 1,178 others injured¹. Five battleships were permanently lost, including the USS Arizona and USS Oklahoma².

In the span of 75 minutes, an ordinary Sunday morning became one of the most devastating and defining moments in American history. 

These numbers are staggering, but to truly grasp their weight:

• The 2,403 lives lost could fill five Boeing 747s.
• The 1,178 injured would fill over 23 full school buses—an entire fleet of vehicles, all packed with individuals affected by a single, tragic event.

Each of these numbers tells a story: a father who wouldn’t come home, a sister whose laughter would be missed, a best friend who left an unfillable void. 

But even amid such loss, remarkable acts of resilience emerged.

In the years that followed, all but three of the damaged ships returned to service, becoming symbols of determination. Millions of Americans stepped forward to defend their country, shaping a path to victory that changed the course of history.

Today, the memorials at Pearl Harbor stand as enduring reminders of the sacrifices made, the unity forged, and the strength that rises from adversity.

This Pearl Harbor Remembrance Day, we invite you to reflect on those 75 minutes that forever shaped our history. Consider how you might honor the lives lost and the bravery displayed—perhaps by dedicating 75 minutes to a cause that matters to you. Volunteer, share stories with loved ones, or take a moment of silence to remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice.

Every small act of remembrance helps carry forward the legacy of resilience and unity born from that day.

Thank you for reflecting with us. Together, let’s turn remembrance into action, continuing to foster hope and connection for future generations.

¹ “U.S. Naval History and Heritage Command. Pearl Harbor Attack,” 7 December 1941. U.S. Department of the Navy, https://www.history.navy.mil/browse-by-topic/wars-conflicts-and-operations/world-war-ii/1941/pearl-harbor.html
² “Sunk But Not Forgotten: American Ships Lost During the Pearl Harbor Attack.” Pearl Harbor Historic Sites, https://pearlharbor.org/blog/sunk-not-forgotten-american-ships-sank-pearl-harbor-attack/

Pop quiz: When’s the best time of year to buy Christmas lights?

The answer, as many know, is January — when demand is low and retailers are eager to clear inventory. It’s a simple example, but it reminds us of an important principle: Timing matters, especially when it comes to your finances.

At the start of each year, there are steps you can take that go beyond saving money — they can help you build it. Whether it’s preparing for taxes, organizing savings, or maximizing contributions, the first quarter presents key opportunities to reduce costs, increase returns, and align your financial actions with your goals.

As a financial planning firm, we’ve developed a practical Q1 Financial Checklist for 2026. It includes five actionable strategies you can consider this January—whether you’re managing retirement planning, saving for a major expense, or simply aiming for more clarity and control over your finances.

Of course, not every item may apply to your situation, but if even one of them sparks a conversation or saves you time or money, it’s time well spent.

If you’d like help applying this checklist to your unique goals, we’d be happy to speak with you. There’s no obligation — just an opportunity to plan smarter and start 2026 with clarity. Wishing you a successful start to the year ahead.

Q1 Financial Checklist for 2026
Tip: Print this out and stick it on the fridge or somewhere else it will be seen.  That way, you can check off the items one by one as you complete them!
▢ Get your tax-filing prep work done early. Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first: Starting sooner on your 2025 tax filing means mistakes become less likely, available deductions or credits are taken advantage of, and headaches are reduced.  Start by gathering all necessary tax forms, notices, invoices, insurance statements, and other documents. Keep in mind that many firms cannot send some statements until late March.  Then, make sure you have all the necessary Social Security numbers and bank account/routing numbers close at hand.  This way, you can spend more time determining which tax credits and deductions you are eligible for and ensure you are reporting all your income.  ▢ Map out your deductible spending for the year. We’re looking ahead to 2027 with this one, but hear us out: If you plan to itemize your deductions for the 2026 tax year — as opposed to taking the standard deduction — it’s good to map out those deductible expenses well ahead of time.  This includes property transactions, home equity loans, charitable donations, and any anticipated medical expenses.  By planning for these now, you can schedule their occurrence for the same tax year — provided it makes sense for your calendar and your budget — which can lead to larger deductions down the road.  ▢ Max out your HSA early if you anticipate high medical expenses. Speaking of “anticipated medical expenses,” if you have any elective surgeries, procedures, or expensive tests on the horizon, it may be wise to open a Health Savings Account and then maximize contributions to it as early as possible.  Doing this enables the funds inside your HSA to start growing tax-free sooner.  Furthermore, if you anticipate hitting your deductible, consider bundling more elective procedures into the same year to maximize how much your HSA can cover.  Obviously, any medical decisions you make should be based on your doctor’s opinion, not your financial advisor’s. Still, the point is, be proactive about funding an HSA if you expect major medical expenses this year! ▢ Begin contributing to retirement accounts now to take advantage of compounding. Albert Einstein is famously supposed to have said, “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world.  He who understands it, earns it.  He who doesn’t, pays it.”  Whether he actually said this is doubtful, but there’s no doubting the truth of it!  If you start maximizing your 401(k) or IRA contributions as early as possible, two things happen.  First, you will spread your contributions evenly throughout the year, which is obviously beneficial for your cash flow.  Second, you will be giving the money more time to compound in value — and the more you let time work for you, the further your money will go.  We don’t need any fancy physics equations to understand that!   ▢ Allocate your savings to specific goals. Is 2026 the year you finally remodel the kitchen or put in a new deck?  Maybe it’s the year you decide to take your family to the upcoming World Cup — the last time it was held in the United States was 1994, after all.  Or maybe you really ant to buy that boat, RV, or motorcycle you’ve had your eye on.  Perhaps it’s all the above and more!  If so, one of the smartest things you can do in Q1 is think strategically about how you will afford each of these goals.  How much will each cost?  How much do you already have saved up, and how much do you still need?  One smart tip is to open a different savings account for the most important goals.  That way, you can see exactly how close you are to each goal.  This will help you prioritize which goals you need to allocate more savings to. It will also ensure that the funds for each don’t accidentally get spent on something else.  The idea is to be purposeful, organized, and strategic — so that when 2027 rolls around, you can say: “2026 was everything I wanted it to be and more.”

Happy Thanksgiving!

A few years ago, we came across a short Thanksgiving story.  Set back in the 1930s, the author is unknown, but we found it to be a great reminder of what makes Thanksgiving such a special day…beyond the buckled Pilgrim hats, football games, and tables groaning under the weight of all that food.  It’s called Porcupine Meatballs, and this year we thought it would be a good time to share it with you.  We hope you enjoy it as much as we did.

On behalf of everyone here at Minich MacGregor Wealth Management, we wish you and yours a very happy Thanksgiving! 

---

Porcupine Meatballs
Anonymous

1933 was a hard year.  F.D.R. had been forced to shut down the banks, and the soup lines in Chicago were especially bad.  I do remember that.  Otherwise, the days all blended together in a gray fog of trying to get by; trying to maintain a little dignity while too many folks around us were losing theirs.  I think that’s about the time we started calling it “the Depression,” or maybe a little earlier. 

Next year, though, things looked up a little.  I moved north to Wisconsin to be closer to family, and I was lucky enough to get a job working for Mr. Nelson, who ran the local market.  The days got a bit brighter.  I can remember more of ‘em, anyways.  Especially Thanksgiving. 

That first Thanksgiving I was there, people came in to buy what they could: Potatoes, flour, lard.  Maybe an egg or two.  And those who could afford ‘em bought a turkey. (Usually a small one.)

The day before Thanksgiving, a boy came in.  Small and scrawny, he couldn’t have been more than ten, with the hollowed-out cheeks and slightly sunken eyes of one who rarely has enough to eat.  (A sight that was all too common in those days.)  He handed me a short list, then gazed hungrily at the last few turkeys on display, most already bought and paid for but not yet picked up. 

Mr. Nelson noticed.  “Does your mother want a turkey, too, Frankie?” he asked. 

“No, sir,” said Frankie.  “Ain’t got the money for that, and ma said not ‘ta waste a nickel.” 

“Well, how much do you have left?”

“Just nineteen cents, sir.”  The boy’s shoulders drooped.  “I been workin’, sellin’ papers on Sundays and odd jobs for Mrs. Stansbury other days, but….” 

I winced.  Nineteen cents was barely enough to buy one pound of an eight-pound bird. 

“Well, what are you planning to eat instead?” Mr. Nelson asked. 

“Just what’s in that basket there, sir,” said the boy, looking sadder still. 

“What?  No meat?” 

“Ma says we still have a bit of that chuck we bought last week.”

Mr. Nelson rubbed his chin.  “Tell you what.  You come back here first thing tomorrow morning.  I’ll have a surprise for you.  Alright?”     

The boy thanked him, though the sad look on his face remained.  After he left, Mr. Nelson turned to me.  “Poor Frankie,” he said.  “That chuck will be hard as old leather by now.  Wouldn’t be fit for pot roast, and a man should have meat on his table for Thanksgiving.” 

“Man?” I asked, wondering if we were talking about the same skinny kid who’d just left. 

Mr. Nelson smiled.  “I know that family.  Young Frankie’s been trying so hard to be the man of the house ever since his father died.  Now it’s time he felt like one.”

The next morning, Frankie showed up as ordered.  Mr. Nelson clapped him on the shoulder. “Do I have a treat for you, young man.” 

Frankie looked confused.  “Sorry, sir, I still don’t have the money for a turkey.  Or a ham.” 

“Not turkey, Frankie.  Better.”     

“Better’n turkey, sir?” The boy sounded skeptical.  I couldn’t blame him; I was skeptical, too. 

“Oh, yes.  Something almost nobody gets to eat at Thanksgiving.  A delicacy.” 

Now the boy looked excited.  “What is it?” he asked breathlessly. 

Mr. Nelson leaned down with a conspiratorial smile on his face.  “Porcupine,” he whispered. 

Frankie’s eyes went wide.  “Porcupine?  I ain’t never heard of anyone eatin’ porcupine.” 

“That’s because it’s so rare.  Normally, I keep it all for myself, but I’ve a little bit extra, which I am willing to sell to you on account of you being such a good customer.”     

Stooping behind the counter, Mr. Nelson produced a tray.  On it were twenty meatballs, each covered with a dozen brown spikes.  They were so pointed and prickly, for a second, I thought they really were made of porcupine!  But when I looked closer, I saw that the “spikes” were really just grains of rice standing on their ends. 

Now Frankie’s eyes were practically popping out of his head in excitement.  “Gosh, I never thought I’d get to serve my ma porcupine for Thanksgiving!  How much?”

“Tell you what, Frankie,” Mr. Nelson said.  “Porcupine’s what you might call an acquired taste; not everyone likes it.  So, you take these home and tell your sisters you’ve been working so hard, you were able to get porcupine this year, the last batch in the store.  If you like it, just give me a wink the next time you see me.”

“I will, sir, thanks!”

The boy left.  I looked at my boss quizzically.  “Porcupine?”

He laughed.  “Just some ground beef mixed with onions, rice, and tomato soup.  Quite good, actually.  His mother will know, of course, but Frankie and his sisters will feel like the richest kids in town.” 

Time went by.  To my surprise, Frankie turned up again the following Thanksgiving, asking if Mr. Nelson had any more “porcupine meatballs,” but this time, insisted on paying “full price.”  I smiled, wondering how long the ruse would last.  But the next year, Frankie came again.  And the next, and the next, and the next.  By then, even Mr. Nelson was getting puzzled. 

“Ain’t that odd?” he said.  “I know the family is better off now.  And turkeys are cheaper than ever.”  But Frankie continued the tradition each year, even through high school. 

The years passed.  Eventually, I went back to Chicago and lost touch with Mr. Nelson, but one Thanksgiving in the early fifties, I returned to visit family.  While there, I was told that my old employer was ill and bed-ridden.  After dinner, I decided to pay him a visit.  He welcomed me warmly, but I could see in his face how sad he was.  Age had forced him to retire, and his wife had long since passed away.  Looking at him now, he was more bone than brawn, gaunt and frail.    

“Can’t even celebrate Thanksgiving proper this year,” he grumbled.  “Too weak to lift the bird.” 

I tried to take his mind off of it, and we yarned about old times until he fell asleep.  Then I heard a knock at the door.  I went to answer it and saw on the doorstep a man in a naval uniform, his hat in one hand, a basket in the other. 

“Is Mr. Nelson home?” he asked.  I replied that he was, but had fallen asleep; could the man come back later?  “Yes,” he said, “but in the meantime, please give him this.”  He handed me the basket and a card.

I found Mr. Nelson awake and sitting up when I returned.  I set the basket next to his bed while he read the card.  His eyes widened with every word.  Then, he handed the card to me while he reached for the basket.  This is what it said:

Dear Mr. Nelson.  I heard you weren’t feeling too fine this Thanksgiving.  I can remember a Thanksgiving where I wasn’t feeling too fine either.  No dad, no money, and no turkey.  But that Thanksgiving ended up being the best one we ever had.  We were so grateful for something to eat!  That’s why we always ate the same thing in my house every single year after, and we eat it still. It reminds us how much we have to be thankful for in a way no turkey ever could.  This year, I thought maybe you could use the reminder, too…because I’m mighty thankful for you.  Your friend, Frank.

Suddenly, Mr. Nelson laughed.  For a moment, the years seemed to fall from his face.  From the basket, the scent of porcupine meatballs was rising.

---

P.S. We did a little research and found that “Porcupine Meatballs” really were a thing in the 1930s!  The Library of Congress even preserved a recipe for them, which you can find here: https://www.loc.gov/resource/gdcmassbookdig.conservationreci00mobi_0/?sp=87. 

When a loved one experiences illness, cognitive decline, or incapacity, having the right financial planning tools in place can make a world of difference.

To help you prepare for these sensitive situations, we’re sharing a valuable resource:

Click to read: 📘 The Power to Care for a Loved One

This guide covers:

• How powers of attorney and other legal tools work
• The role of trusted contacts and why they matter
• Steps to put a financial care plan in place before a crisis happens

Key Takeaways:

• Early planning reduces stress and protects assets
• Without legal authority, even close family members may face roadblocks
• We can help ensure your financial documents reflect your current wishes

Taking the time now to plan ahead is one of the greatest gifts you can give your loved ones. If you’d like to discuss any part of this guide or update your current plan, please reach out.

Warm regards,

In our experience, the older we get, the more we realize how much there is to be thankful for. This realization often prompts a desire to give back – to share our personal blessings with the world around us. 

For many, especially those nearing or in retirement (though not exclusively), charitable giving becomes a deeply meaningful goal.  It’s a way to enrich one’s life by positively impacting others. 

But while the spirit of giving comes from the heart, the strategy should come from the head. Just as different motor vehicles serve different transportation needs – a sports car for speed, a truck for towing, a mini-van for families — different charitable vehicles are suited to different philanthropic goals and financial circumstances.  Some are also more tax-advantageous than others.

Whether you’re just beginning to explore charitable giving or are an experienced philanthropist, it’s important to evaluate the options available – and periodically reassess whether your current vehicle is still the best fit.

With that in mind, here are four of the most common charitable giving vehicles, along with a quick overview of their pros and cons. 

Vehicle #1: Donor Advised Funds (DAFs)

A donor-advised fund is an investment account designed to support charitable giving.  You can contribute cash, equities, and even alternative assets.  All contributions are tax-deductible – up to 60% of your adjusted gross income for cash donations.¹ 

The primary advantage of a DAF is flexibility.  You can contribute now and decide later which organizations will receive the funds, all while benefiting from the immediate tax advantages.  Multiple individuals can contribute to a DAF, making it a good option for families seeking to pool resources.

However, DAFs offer only advisory privileges – not control. While you can suggest how the funds are used, the charity makes the final decision.  Additionally, donations are irrevocable and cannot be reclaimed.

Vehicle #2: Private Foundation

A private foundation is a legal entity created to fund charitable activities.  Unlike public charities, which may raise funds from the public, a private foundation is typically funded by a single individual, family, or corporation.

Private foundations provide full control over the investment decisions, grantmaking, and governance. They also offer the opportunity to create a legacy, as foundations can exist in perpetuity. 

The trade-off?  Complexity.  Setting up a private foundation requires IRS approval, annual filings, and the creation of a board of directors.  It is not a passive endeavor, but an ongoing commitment that requires time and administrative effort.

Vehicle #3: Charitable Remainder Trust (CRTs)

A CRT allows you to donate assets to a trust while receiving an income stream for a set period (or for life).  After this period ends, the remaining assets are transferred to a designated charity – which could include a private foundation.

This structure supports both your current cash flow and long-term charitable goals.  However, CRTs must be established with the help of an attorney and are irrevocable. They may not provide the same immediate tax benefits as other vehicles.

Vehicle #4: Charitable Lead Trust (CLTs)

A CLT is essentially the reverse of a CRT.  In this case, your chosen charity received regular payments for a fixed term, after which the remaining assets pass to your heirs, potentially free of estate or gift taxes.  CLTs can be useful tools for integrating philanthropy into your estate plan.

However, CLTs are complex.  There are two main types, each with specific tax implications and structuring requirements.  They must be carefully designed with legal and financial professionals.  Like CRTs, CLTs are irrevocable.

If you would like to explore any of these options further, please don’t hesitate to reach out.  We would be happy to discuss how charitable giving can support both your values and your financial goals.

¹ “Publication 526, Charitable Contributions,” Internal Revenue Service, https://www.irs.gov/publications/p526

Earlier this year, two dates came and went, largely unnoticed by Americans and mostly uncovered in the media.  But they are two of the most important dates in modern history — maybe all history. 

We’re referring to May 8 and September 2.  Victory in Europe Day and Victory Over Japan Day. 

They’re not given much attention anymore, but once upon a time, some of the biggest celebrations our country has ever seen took place on those two days.  The news that World War II was finally over sparked an unparalleled wave of joy and gratitude worldwide.  Now, in 2025, we believe it’s more important than ever that we remember those days, that war, and the men and women who served in it.

This year marks the 80^th anniversary of the end of World War II.  A war that saw America’s greatest generation storm beaches in Algeria, Sicily, and Normandy.  Swelter and suffer in steamy tropical islands like Guadalcanal, Peleliu, and Okinawa.  Risk their lives behind enemy lines in China and India.  Even defend U.S. soil in Hawaii, Oregon, and Alaska.

A war that saw 16.4 million Americans serve in some capacity.     

Today, eighty years later, there are fewer and fewer people still alive who celebrated those special days.  In fact, the National World War II Museum estimates that fewer than 1% of those 16 million veterans are still with us.¹  Less than one percent left to tell their stories.  To keep a living record of what they saw, what they accomplished…and why it mattered. 

This month marks another important date.  November 11.  Veterans Day. 

Of course, Veterans Day is for commemorating all those who have served, not just those in World War II.  But given that this year marks the 80^th anniversary of that conflict — and given how few of those veterans we still have left — we think they deserve special attention this year.  Whether it’s visiting the grave of someone who has departed, volunteering at the local VA hospital, or even just cracking open a book to learn more about their service and sacrifice, this is a chance for us to make their past an ever-present part of our future.  To truly understand and give thanks for the world we are so fortunate to live in.  A world we would not have without them. 

The veterans of World War II liberated towns from tyranny and rescued survivors from concentration camps.  They paved the way to greater equality for all Americans.  And the effort it took to support them turbocharged our economy in ways never seen before or since.  Ways that we are still benefiting from today.

As Father J.P. Lardie, a military chaplain who served in World War II, once put it:

One day, when the history of the 20^th Century is finally written, it will be recorded that when human society stood at the crossroads and civilization itself was under siege, [they] were there to fill the breach and help give humanity the victory. And all those who had a part in it will have left to posterity a legacy of honour, of courage, and of valour that time can never despoil.”²

We are so grateful for our veterans.  We feel so moved whenever we have the chance to work with them.  And we feel so humbled to be lucky enough to share the title of “American” with them.  We know you are, too. 

For those veterans who served during one of humanity’s darkest hours, we are especially grateful this year. 

General Douglas MacArthur, who commanded U.S. forces in the Pacific, famously said during his farewell address to Congress, “Old soldiers never die, they just fade away.”  But most of those who fought with him have died. 

Now, it’s our job to ensure that they — and everything they stood for — never, ever fades away.

On behalf of our team, we wish you a safe and peaceful Veterans Day. 

¹ “Latest VA Projection Reveals Rate of WWII’s Fade from Living Memory,” The National WWII Museum, January 21, 2025.  https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/latest-va-projection-reveals-rate-wwiis-fade-living-memory
² “Father John Pilip Lardie, the Chaplain on the Motorcycle,” Bomber Command Museum Archives, https://www.bombercommandmuseumarchives.ca/fatherlardie.html

Happy Halloween!  As you know, this season is a time for ghost stories and graveyards, vampires and zombies.  But have you ever wondered why so much Halloween imagery, whether silly or serious, is associated with the dead?  Why do kids dress up as the supernatural instead of, we don’t know, our favorite fruits and vegetables around harvest season? 

Well, Halloween as we know it is really a combination of several, much older traditions.  The three foremost, in our opinion, are the Christian season of Allhallowtide, the ancient Celtic festival of Samhain, and the Mexican holiday of Dia de Muertos, or “Day of the Dead.” 

All three of which are very much about death — though not necessarily in a scary way! 

For all human history, people have been preoccupied with what happens to our loved ones after they die.  Are they still around?  Will we see them again?  And for most of history, people didn’t live very long.  War, disease, and famine were constant threats, meaning the idea of death was a constant companion.  Much of a person’s life was working just to ensure that their family name would continue after them…so that maybe, somehow, they would be remembered after they were gone. 

These questions and concerns helped pave the way for many of the various cultural traditions that would eventually shape Halloween.  For example:

Allhallowtide begins on October 31 and lasts through early November.  It is a period for remembering those who have died, especially martyrs and saints.  During the Middle Ages, children would often go from house to house on the final day of Allhallowtide and beg for money, apples, or sweets called “soul-cakes.”  This practice was called “souling”, and involved children chanting “a soul cake, a soul-cake, have mercy on all Christian souls for a soul-cake.” 

Samhain takes place on November 1, but celebrations in Ireland, Scotland, and Wales would often start on October 31.  According to Irish tradition, Samhain is a time when the boundary between our world and the “otherworld” grow thin — making it possible to communicate with the souls of our ancestors who have departed. Over time, many of the same rituals from Allhallowtide, like costumes, jack o’ lanterns, and souling were also practiced during Samhain.  (And some of them probably started with Samhain first before getting adopted by Allhallowtide.) 

Finally, Dia de Muertos traditionally begins anywhere from October 31 through November 6.  A combination of Allhallowtide and indigenous Mexican customs, the “Day of the Dead” is a celebration of friends and family members who have passed away.  It’s a chance to remember them by eating their favorite foods and decorating their graves while swapping stories and funny memories about their lives. 

So How Did Halloween Get “Scary”? In some areas of Medieval Europe, people believed the dead would use Allhallowtide as one last chance to get revenge on those who’d wronged them before moving on to the afterlife. Hollowed out vegetables — early jack o’ lanterns — were used as lanterns to ward off evil spirits, and people would wear masks and costumes so as not to be recognized by angry ghosts.  With Samhain, people believed that because the line between worlds were blurred, it was also possible to encounter supernatural spirits and faeries.  Many of the same rituals, like costumes, jack o’ lanterns, and souling were also practiced during Samhain.  (And some probably started with Samhain before getting adopted by Allhallowtide later.)  But at their core, both Allhallowtide and Samhain are more about commemorating the dead than fearing them.

Three festivals, all around the same time, all when the long day makes way for longer nights, all centered around those who have passed on.  Today, of course, the usual Halloween traditions are dressing up in costumes, carving pumpkins, telling ghost stories, and trick-or-treating.  Fanciful echoes of past customs and beliefs — and by practicing them, we are, in a way, still paying tribute to our ancestors. 

Reading about these origins made us ponder our own family members and ancestors who are no longer with us.  Some of them we knew; some we didn’t but have heard about.  But many of are just names and dates — assuming we know about them at all.  And that got us thinking: Between the scary movies and the endless replaying of “Thriller” on the radio, is there some other activity we can do that’s more in line with the original meaning of Halloween?  We think there is!

Genealogy has become an increasingly popular hobby in recent years, from DNA testing to learn where our ancestors came from to scouring digital archives to find out who we are related to.  We think that’s because, by gaining a greater understanding of where we come from, we can better understand who we are…and why. 

Given that October is also National Family History Month, we think spending time constructing our family trees and learning more about our ancestors, is in perfect keeping with Halloween!  By doing this, we are doing what our ancestors used to do: Commemorating and remembering those who came before us so that their memory never fades. 

If you are interested in learning more about your ancestors, the National Archives has some tips on how to get started:

1. Start With Yourself.  As they put it, “you are the beginning ‘twig’ on your vast family tree.”  Write down all the information you can think about regarding yourself.  Then do your parents, working backwards to your grandparents, great-grandparents, and so on.  Then, 2. Begin at Home.  Look for information about your ancestors in newspaper clippings, birth and death certificates, military service records, diaries, letters, scrapbooks, photo albums, and other documents.  Next, 3. Use Relatives as Sources.  Visit, call, or write to your older relatives.  Ask them what information they have collected, who they know, what they remember.  They are the easiest and most vital link to the past.  Finally, 4. Comb Federal, State, and County Records.  Archives are held at every level containing census data, tax records, marriage certificates, deeds to property and more — all clues to the names and stories of those who gave us our family names. 

Halloween is a time for sweets and spooky stories.  But at its heart, it’s about something more powerful: Preserving the memory of our ancestors and connecting with the past…so that one day, we will be remembered, too.  But however you celebrate the holiday, we wish you a very happy Halloween!